It may not be a week you have marked on your summer calendar, but this past week was referred to as “data week” given the sheer amount of economic data releases that were published in the past four days. Let’s review the highlight reel as well as the main event – the Fed’s rate decision.

Consumer Confidence – this is a monthly measure of consumer attitudes and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The top line measure came in ahead of expectations (97.2 vs. 95.5).

Job Openings (JOLTS) – this metric of open job postings was in line with consensus but down from the prior month, perhaps indicating a bit of weakening on the jobs front

Case Shiller Home Price Index – this data point, which tracks the overall trend in US home prices, was down from the previous month but still shows an uptick in housing prices (2.3% month over month). That’s the slowest monthly increase in over two years and fuels the ongoing debates about housing availability, affordability, and interest rates

Q2 GDP – initial reading of 3% (ahead of 2% estimates) and in sharp contrast to negative print in Q1. This was largely due to a big trade reversal at the beginning of the quarter.  The expected bounce back in net exports pushed the GDP number higher, just as the huge decline in net exports pulled it down last quarter. 

ADP Report – another key read on labor. This reading came in ahead of expectations at 104,000 increase in private sector jobs vs. 64,000 consensus

Pending home Sale Index – this housing measure (homes under contract to be sold) missed expectations for June, down 0.8% (vs. 0.2% expected).

Overall, the collection of data published this week seemed to indicate the US economy is doing relatively well. As one article put it – the US economy keeps defying predictions (especially those made in early April of its imminent demise…remember the calls for recession?) Growth has recovered, housing is slowing (but still active), and labor market remains reasonably resilient as well. Given this backdrop, markets were expecting the Federal Reserve to do exactly what it did this week – nothing.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve bank made its rate decision for July and left rates unchanged. During this press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell commented on the economy and how it’s holding its own – even with rates where they are: “It seems to me—and to almost the whole committee—that the economy is not performing as though monetary policy is holding it back inappropriately and modestly restrictive policy seems appropriate“

Powell once again emphasized that the Fed continues to examine the data as it becomes available and remain focused on the health of the labor market (which is slowing but still supportive) as well as price stability (for which tariffs remains a top concern). The next rate decision meeting will be in September so a meaningful amount of data will be available to the Fed between now and then – and how that data plays out will determine if the Fed will be too late or right on time.

So stay tuned to the incoming economic data from here. Something tells me it will be an eventful two months!

Onward we go,