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Markets were once again focused on the Federal Reserve this week as they released their September rate announcement. At that meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there would be no rate hike this month (the second such “pause” in 2023). This was a well choreographed moved and as a result, it was not a surprise […]

Hitting Pause

September 21, 2023

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A sure sign of the passing of time these days is the release of monthly inflation reports. August 2023’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were released this week and the results were..well, mixed. Let’s look at CPI first. Month over month, headline CPI rose 0.6%. The core metric (excluding volatile food […]

Latest Inflation Report (August 2023)

September 14, 2023

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. His comments were widely anticipated and eagerly watched by market participants. His comments struck a balance between optimism and caution. On the optimistic side, he acknowledged that progress has certainly been made on inflation fight. However, he was quick to ensure […]

Following the Stars

August 31, 2023

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Have you ever been to Jackson Hole, Wyoming? It’s a truly beautiful part of the country. The mountain air, the vast landscape, the stunning view of the Grand Tetons – a perfect place for a late summer vacation. Countless central bank officials and top academic leaders will make their way to Jackson Hole this week […]

The Fed Heads West

August 23, 2023

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I’ve written quite a bit about interest rates in recent years. They have an inextricable impact on financial asset prices, so it’s always instructive to pay attention to what is happening to rates – both in the US and abroad. Interest rates have risen relatively drastically in July and August across the yield curve (ie: […]

Interest Rates – What’s Going On?

August 17, 2023

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One of the most important economic releases for August came out today (Thursday August 10th) – the July CPI report – revealing the latest inflation dynamics at play in the United States. August has been a challenging month for investors, as markets have reversed their upside trendlines sharply in the first several trading days of […]

As Expected

August 10, 2023

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August is typically a challenging month for stocks and that is proving to be true yet again this year (at least as of August 2nd while I’m writing this note). We did get relatively tame data regarding inflation and jobs earlier in the week and another jobs report will hit the wires shortly before this […]

Best S&P 500 Sectors Over a Business Cycle

August 2, 2023

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Let’s travel back in time. Friends is the top TV show. All for You by Janet Jackson is the top song. AOL has 28 million users and AOL.com is the top website. George W Bush is president. Flip phones and Blackberries dominate the cell phone market. Gas is $1.46 per gallon. It’s early 2001. A […]

Is this the end?

July 27, 2023

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I was reviewing a weekly newsletter this week (yes, I read several others beyond the Friday Five!) when this headline caught my eye. It was sourced from this recent CNBC article on what adults in the US believe they will need to retire Notice anything alarming about this summary graphic? Pretty much everything in the […]

Reality as Reassurance

July 20, 2023

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After a slow holiday week, markets have resumed normal operating speed this week and thankfully, the momentum has been positive. The upward moves are largely due to signs of disinflation. The two inflation reports for June released this week did their part to reassure investors that it remains possible the US can attain a soft […]

Progress on Inflation

July 13, 2023


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