It’s not often you read a headline for new highs in the US equity market (S&P 500 and NASDAQ) as well as headline for a 24-year high in the US 10-year treasury yield in the same week – but such is our current reality. This sets up a very unusual game of tug-of-war in markets. […]

Third quarter 2026 wrapped up this week, surrounded by a flurry of noteworthy events and data releases. Let’s take a look at four such items Inflation and Jobs Data The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for August was released and was a cooler read of inflation than markets anticipated, rising 3% year over year […]

Oil hovers near $100. Middle East conflict marches on. Trade wars are back in the headlines. Midterm elections are coming up in six weeks in the US. The Federal Reserve rose interest rates last week (and may not be done with their hikes). Longer-term interest rates continue to rise (with the 10 year rising, sitting […]

After weeks of speculation, the US Federal Reserve released their rate decision on Wednesday this week. Leading up to the decision, markets had been pricing a near 100% probability of a rate hike. Turns out they were correct all along. The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the Federal Funds rate 0.25% – the first […]

No, this is not just a question to ask yourself when visiting a mountain region! This is the key questions market participants are asking themselves this week regarding the likely outcome of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week Wednesday. In the wake of a somewhat strong jobs report last Friday, markets are now […]

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual research symposium in Jackson Hole, WY on Friday 8.28. Over the years, market participants have been glued to this mountain town as this symposium always seems to come at an important time for markets. This year is no […]

I’ve always been a huge fan of Ted Lasso (the hit show on Apple TV). It recently returned for its Fourth Season and throughout 2026, I decided to rewatch the first three seasons to refresh my memory as it had been a few years. The show was even better the second time around as I […]

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate – keep prices stable (ie: fight inflation) and maintain full employment (ie: stabilize the labor market). In the past week, we received reports on both of these fronts. Last Friday, the July jobs report was released. Surprisingly, the US economy reported a loss of 23,000 in July. Expectations […]

Q2 2026 GDP Late last week, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis issued an advance reading of US Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2026. GDP rose 1.5% in the quarter, down from 2.1% in Q1 (which had also been the Q2 forecasted amount). As you may recall from prior writings, the formula for GDP is: […]

The Federal Reserve Bank made their rate announcement on Wednesday of this week. The group was divided, with the majority voting to leave rates unchanged (3.5-3.75%) but with three members dissenting and voting to hike rates. Fed Chairman Warsh noted the group had a healthy debate but in the end, they voted to hold rates […]