If you took a break from all market news for the past month and a half, you might think April thru early May was an uneventful time. The S&P opened at on April 1 at 5597 and closed at on May 14 on 5893, resulting in a nice 5%+ return in just over a month. Life is good, right?
However, the intra-month gyrations were something to behold with the S&P reaching an intraday low of 4835 in of April 8th. Since then, we’ve experienced a staggering 21% increase off the lows in 25 trading days (almost 1% a day). This rapid recovery (after an even more rapid decent) has clients rightfully asking what comes next and – “is it too late to buy now”?
Here are a few things I’ve been discussing with clients about this week when that question has come up.
Emotions are Powerful – Pay Attention to Yours
First, if you are asking yourself questions about market timing, give yourself some grace. Is it usually a better bet to buy when everyone is telling you to sell and predicting that the end is near, when the screen is red and there seems like no bottom? Of course. Is that easy to do? Not at all.
Sure, in hindsight, it seems like a no brainer to buy when the S&P was down 20% but at that point in time, you likely had zero confidence markets would ever recover (let alone rise 25% in under a month). You had no way to know what would become of the trade war. You had no way to predict the future. Your emotions will always play a role. Understand that and find a way to use them to your advantage (see next)
Document this Experience
I’ve talked about this in the past and this month was yet another time when markets (and your reaction to them) can be highly instructive. I realize the experience has passed (for now) and your portfolios are likely back to where they started the year, or close to it. But nonetheless, take just a few minutes and jot down what you were feeling in early April. Were you nervous? Were you tempted to “go to cash” just to stop the declines? Were you questioning why you invest in the first place? Was your overall quality of life negatively impacted by what was happening to your portfolio? Also note the actions you took as a result (if any).
All of it matters , all of it is valid, and it’s important to write it down. We as humans (and investors) are blessed and cursed with very short memories so you have to remind yourself while you still can. You can then use this to make changes now (see next) or to remind yourself during the next downturn that your feelings are reasonable, consistent, and best of all – temporary.
Revisit your Plan
Based on the above assessment, you may wish to revisit your financial plan and resulting target asset allocations. Odds are your plan produced the losses that are part of your designed approach – ie: the risk you have agreed to accept to produce the expected long term returns you need to reach your goals. And if that’s the case, and you were able to manage your emotions, you’re all set.
But perhaps you didn’t handle this time well and realize you can live with a slightly lower return (and therefore slightly lower risk). Now that the “rain has stopped” so to speak, it’s the perfect time to revisit things and make sure your plan meets your needs in good times and in challenging times.
Make Adjustments on Strength
As noted above, many portfolios have regained all of their YTD losses (or close to it). It’s far easier to make adjustments to your portfolio when they are in a position of strength. If you have concentrated positions, you may wish to evaluate trimming them now. If you still have losses, you may wish to harvest them. If you are overweight an asset class per your target allocation, you may wish to rebalance. If you wish to adjust your overweights/underweights just a bit or adjust your target due to a change in your goals, now is a good time to look at that as well. All of those things that you wished you would have done in the middle of April’s storm – take a look at doing them now.
Boldly Execute Against Your Plan
This is perhaps the most important advice I have been giving clients. The key to investing in my view is unwavering consistency. What does that look like? Here are some hallmarks of this:
*Establish an emergency fund/cash reserves – having enough liquidity on hand at all times to cover unexpected costs and maintain your lifestyle allows you to tolerate the volatility in your invested portfolio to a greater extent
*Set a plan and stick to the resulting target asset allocation – the potential drawdown is a key part of any financial plan. Yet the reality feels far different than the projection. The best way to test your risk tolerance is to see how you react to a time like this one. Make sure you have a plan you won’t abandon in the tough times
*Set a savings goal and continue to fund your accounts according to that plan – employer plans are excellent tools for this as cash goes into 401ks and 403bs every pay period, allowing you to “buy” at all market levels. You can accomplish this on your own as well by setting an approach in advance and then executing against it (ie: invest $5,000 each month)
*Establish a budget and do your best to adhere to it consistently – monitor your spending which allows you to reach your savings goals
Having a robust plan in place – and boldly executing against in regardless of market movements – is one of the best ways to keep your emotions in line and to reach your long term goals.
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Considering all of the above, the answer to the question clients are asking about “is it too late” is no – not unless you have reached the end of your plan (which is you are reading this, you are still here and still executing against your plan!)
As we’ve seen in the past month, markets move forward regardless of how we feel about them. Life moves forward, regardless of what markets are doing. We have no choice but to move forward as well. Don’t “wait” until you feel comfortable – that time may never come. Formulate a plan and execute against it. And if part of that plan calls for additional savings over time (ie: you have cash to “buy” the market with), deploy those funds in the agreed upon timeline per your target allocations and focus forward. That’s the only direction we can go.
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