Client Question: Is this Time Different?

March 13, 2025

Whenever we hit times of market volatility, I always appreciate it when clients reach out to me. Many times, it helps just to talk to someone about your fears and concerns. The small action of speaking your worries outloud can be enough to satisfy that pesky “do something!” urge.

During those discussions this week, there was a common question. Is this time different? Sure, most investors have been thru pullbacks before but no matter how many times these events occur, it always feels uniquely painful.

My answer to the “is this time different” question – It’s the same – but also different. I know, what an answer but hear me out.

As of Monday March 11, the S&P 500 (major US stock index) was down 9.5% from its high. This was the largest pullback since summer 2024 (yes – not that long ago markets fell 9.7% an do you even remember why that was? Likely not). This also marks the 30th time markets have pulled back more than 5% from a high since March 2009. On average, markets fall over 5% three times a year and typically, the selloffs reach 10% at least once a year. In terms of timing of pullback and magnitude, it’s pretty similar to prior years. See below chart for added perspective.

It’s also eerily similar to a specific selloff in fall of 2018 when there were fears of inflation, a stubborn Federal reserve, a possible trade war, and falling tech stock valuations. Baird’s Michael Antonelli shared a CNBC article from that time that could very well have been written this week. History may not repeat but it often rhymes.

Lastly, a common element of this pullback and others (as well as every day in markets for that matter) is a presence of uncertainty. Market commentators keep using this as a reason for the pullback and while it is true that uncertainty impacts sentiment and fund flows, this isn’t exactly news. Nothing in life (and certainly nothing in markets) is ever certain, no matter how much we want it to be.

There are a two key things that do feel markedly different this time. One should be obvious if you consume any level of news – and that is the sheer volume of information (at times conflicting) that is coming at investors and markets in rapid fire fashion. Whether it’s tariff policy, tax proposals, possible government shutdowns, government efficiency efforts, or geopolitical negotiations, the news flow is definitely moving very quickly these days. It also seems to change by the minute in some cases.

Another unique facet of this pullback is its speed. This pullback ranks in the top 5 fastest declines

As you can see, this pullback is both the same and different. Regardless, the advice remains the same. Stay the course and do what you can to keep your reactionary impulses in line. Why? Because one key thing always remains the same. Timing the markets is a fool’s errand – especially in a market moving as quickly as this one. As fast as this decline has been, the rebound could very well be just as rapid. Don’t believe that? Look back to the chart above. The average twelve monthly forward return after the 5 largest pullbacks was 21%. Could this time be different? Of course. Will it be different? We’ll all find out together.

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