There are certain questions I receive quite frequently given my profession. One of the most popular goes something like this “So, I read an article that the market is going to crash in the next year. What do you think I should do?”

I had someone ask this question again recently and thought it was worth addressing here. Below are a few things I always bring up when asked this question – let’s review!

1. When it comes to investing, beware of absolute certainty – I always start by asking questions about where the “end of the world” prediction came from. Usually, it’s from an article, podcast, or news story. Sometimes it is from a social media post or a comment from a family member or friend. I’m not at all debating the fact that any one of these sources could be very well informed and researched and capable of a valid prediction. However, when it comes to most things in life (including investing), certainty of the future is an impossibility. No one knows what is going to happen – no one! Sure, you can consider and evaluate and come up with a reasonable prediction – but any claim about the future that reads like a known fact is simply not reliable.

2. Apply professional skepticism – When I was an auditor at a public accounting firm, one of the things they stressed was for us to maintain a certain level of “professional skepticism” – meaning we were supposed to look for the holes in any argument, trust but verify, and focus on asking targeted questions – but in a nice way! I usually ask the person who tells me the “end is near” to do the same. Who is making the prediction? What’s their actual claim? Do they benefit from you believing what they are saying? What are the incentives at play?

3. Separate fact from fiction – Once follow-up questions have been asked and the source and support of the argument have been made, it’s far easier to evaluate the prediction being made. In almost all cases, when I’m asked this question, it is out of a fear-based response. No one with any invested capital wants to hear that “it’s all about to end” or that a “crash is coming.” That fear is valid and a desire to have someone to talk to about it is very reasonable. I find that breaking things down between facts (ie: the level of interest rates, the current P/E multiple, the historical performance of markets under various political regimes) and (potential) fiction (ie: AI is a bubble, tariffs will kill our economy, etc) calms some of those fears

4.) Control what you can control – After all of this, there may still be some lingering concern that the prediction will come true. An it very well might. However, as noted in #1 above, there is no way to know with absolute certainty what is going to happen – in life or in investing.

The best you can do is control what you can control. Understand your budget. Keep necessary level of cash reserves on hand. Spend within your means. Understand your asset allocation (return potential and risk exposure). Review and manage concentrations to any one sector, theme, or company. Ensure cash flow needs are met and secured for at least three years. Review insurance policies to protect tail risks. There are so many things you can control that will have a far greater impact that a prediction in a news article. Start there. Predictions and scary headlines are never going to go away. But if you are prepared and have done the work ahead of time, you will be able to stay the course regardless of which of them come true.