Fears mounted heading into the long Easter weekend as President Trump placed an ultimatum on Iran that would have had dire humanitarian and global consequences if acted upon. At the last minute, a ceasefire was announced Tuesday night and markets sharply rebounded Wednesday, making up almost all of the declines since the conflict began. (Ironically enough, the market rebound happened on April 8th – which was the same day that markets bottomed in 2025 after the tariff tantrum)

Sorry to be the bearer of bad (or realstic) news but much remains to be seen in the coming weeks if this truce – and resulting market rally – can hold. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf claimed in an X post on Wednesday night that America was already in violation of the peace proposal and it does not yet appear that meaningful shipping traffic is moving thru the Straight of Hormuz. Meanwhile, President Trump threatened 50% tariffs against any country helping Iran (likely directed at China) and continues to tout the peace talks as a certainty.

As always, it’s likely truth lies somewhere between two endpoints but it is exceptionally complex to make even an educated guess in this situation given the unpredictability of the Trump administration and the lack of clarity regarding Iran’s leadership. From a market perspective, it seems likely this cease-fire should be viewed as a pause in escalation, rather than a full resolution. However, it did seem to indicate that President Trump is looking for an exit ramp and no longer wishes to pursue a full-scale/at all costs war, which is certainly welcome news to markets.

And of course, this conflict in Iran is not the only item that has – and will continue -to impact markets. We will receive quarterly earnings reports in the coming weeks, as well as a slew of economic data that may indicate the likely path for interest rates (inflation concerns are high given the price hikes in oil).

What’s an investor to do with all this information? The same as always – likely nothing (as discussed in our last post). That statement is not meant to encourage complacency – but it is meant to emphasize one of the most important strategies in the long-term compounding of wealth: focus on time IN the markets, not timING the markets. The wilder the ride, the calmer you need to force your mind to remain. Stay in – it’s always worked and there’s no reason to think this time will be any different.

Onward we go,