The “data dependent” Federal Reserve received another two data points this week as two inflation reports for September were published. Let’s take a look at what each revealed – and what they may mean for the path forward. Producer Price Index (“PPI”) First up was PPI, which measures wholesale prices (cost producers pay for finished […]

During the last quarterly reporting cycle, I wrote to clients about the “shock and awe” that characterized the first half of 2023. The “shock” came from the failures of several financial institutions in March, which was accompanied by the “awe” that was the stunning rebound in equity markets, particularly in certain sectors exposed to the […]

Another quarter is (almost) behind us. As every investor knows, there are always lessons to be learned from time in the market and the past ninety days of activity were on exception. Below I summarize three key learnings from Q3 2023. 1.) It’s a Long and Winding Road This quarter was a great reminder that […]

Markets were once again focused on the Federal Reserve this week as they released their September rate announcement. At that meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there would be no rate hike this month (the second such “pause” in 2023). This was a well choreographed moved and as a result, it was not a surprise […]

A sure sign of the passing of time these days is the release of monthly inflation reports. August 2023’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were released this week and the results were..well, mixed. Let’s look at CPI first. Month over month, headline CPI rose 0.6%. The core metric (excluding volatile food […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. His comments were widely anticipated and eagerly watched by market participants. His comments struck a balance between optimism and caution. On the optimistic side, he acknowledged that progress has certainly been made on inflation fight. However, he was quick to ensure […]

Have you ever been to Jackson Hole, Wyoming? It’s a truly beautiful part of the country. The mountain air, the vast landscape, the stunning view of the Grand Tetons – a perfect place for a late summer vacation. Countless central bank officials and top academic leaders will make their way to Jackson Hole this week […]

I’ve written quite a bit about interest rates in recent years. They have an inextricable impact on financial asset prices, so it’s always instructive to pay attention to what is happening to rates – both in the US and abroad. Interest rates have risen relatively drastically in July and August across the yield curve (ie: […]

One of the most important economic releases for August came out today (Thursday August 10th) – the July CPI report – revealing the latest inflation dynamics at play in the United States. August has been a challenging month for investors, as markets have reversed their upside trendlines sharply in the first several trading days of […]

August is typically a challenging month for stocks and that is proving to be true yet again this year (at least as of August 2nd while I’m writing this note). We did get relatively tame data regarding inflation and jobs earlier in the week and another jobs report will hit the wires shortly before this […]