If you are a bit (or a lot) confused by the daily news flow and the corresponding market movements, rest assure – you are not alone. There is really a seemingly endless stream of conflicting information coming at us each day (if not each hour). There are statements made, statements retracted, statements made by someone else negating the last one, social media posts made, statements made contradicting those posts – you get the drift. It is all just A LOT and it can make it very challenging to keep your wits about you.

This week (while the confusion remains) may just have been our first look at an encouraging sea change. For the first time since Liberation Day on April 2nd, various administration officials (including President Trump himself) are softening their tone, seemingly in response to the markets strongly expressing their displeasure with the ongoing pronounced uncertainty. Gone are the comments that they “aren’t even watching the stock market.” Instead, it seems they too have a limit of pain they will accept and we may have reached that level.

Here’s a sampling for this week’s comments:

*US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he believes there will be a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions and that neither side sees the status quo as sustainable. He also reiterated that the Trump administration’s goal was not to decouple the world’s two largest economies.

*Bessent also said that the current situation, with 145% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and 125% Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods, was unsustainable, saying that a de-escalation would happen over the “very near future” that would provide “a sigh of relief” for markets, the person said

*President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he has “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term leading the U.S. central bank ends next year (after calling him a “loser” over the weekend, which led to a sell-off on Monday)

*On Tesla’s earnings call, administration insider Elo Musk said that he will lobby the Trump administration to ease off its sweeping tariff regime

Does this mean we’ve reached a near-term market bottom? That’s impossible to know. It remains possible that the hit to consumer confidence, slow down in spending (consumer and business), and ongoing trade disruptions/stoppages may have already tipped the US economy into a recession (commonly defined as two quarters on negative GDP growth). However, it is also possible that a swift reversal in policy tone (that we saw this week), followed by some imminent trade deals and a permanent removal of the broad-based tariffs put in place on April 2nd would ease concerns, cause markets to rally, and spark spending and renewed wealth effect just in time. American tends to be resilient and have a relatively short memory – we will see if that holds true this time and if the rest of the world does as well.

As the confusion continues, it can be really hard to keep things in perspective. This time may feel different to you. This time may feel worse than prior downturns. This time may feel like the most uncertain investing period you’ve been thru.

Yet, if you’ve been investing for several years (or decades), just take a minute and think back to 2008 or 2020. Think about those times and if you are able, remind yourself of the actions you took during those periods. Did you move everything to cash? Did you adjust your cash flow/spending? Did you keep contributing to your employer plans? Did you put more money into the market? Did you adjust your consumption of media? What made you feel better in that time period? What made you feel worse?

Be your own teacher. Look back on those times. Use that wisdom to be your own best guide thru this confusion. Some day, this too will be an instructional period you can reference when we reach the next challenging time.

Onward we go,

ps – if you need another teacher, historical data can be instructive. Below is a chart of all the market pullbacks of over 19% (the magnitude we had at the recent lows). The average time it took to reach new highs was 14 months. The longest was 48 months. The average gain? 47% Is this a long time? Not if you are investing over your entire adult life. Keep going!