I’ve written about trend lines in the past – reminding you (and myself) that (a) no trend line lasts forever and (b) they move in both directions. This week was yet another example of this fact as interest rates made a sharp reversal and started moving down just as rapidly as they had gone up […]

As I’ve mentioned in the past, we subscribe to a few research services to help provide timely information and analysis of markets. One of these firms (FS Insight) published a video this week discussing the “wall of worry” markets have been attempting to climb (unsuccessfully) ever since late July. I thought it would be worthwhile […]

Markets – stocks and bonds alike – seem singularly focused on one factor in recent weeks – interest rates. The business news channels have the 10-year interest rate ticker in the corner of the screen, watching it near a 5% level all week (which it crossed late Thursday night). As rates continue to rise, both […]

The “data dependent” Federal Reserve received another two data points this week as two inflation reports for September were published. Let’s take a look at what each revealed – and what they may mean for the path forward. Producer Price Index (“PPI”) First up was PPI, which measures wholesale prices (cost producers pay for finished […]

During the last quarterly reporting cycle, I wrote to clients about the “shock and awe” that characterized the first half of 2023. The “shock” came from the failures of several financial institutions in March, which was accompanied by the “awe” that was the stunning rebound in equity markets, particularly in certain sectors exposed to the […]

Another quarter is (almost) behind us. As every investor knows, there are always lessons to be learned from time in the market and the past ninety days of activity were on exception. Below I summarize three key learnings from Q3 2023. 1.) It’s a Long and Winding Road This quarter was a great reminder that […]

Markets were once again focused on the Federal Reserve this week as they released their September rate announcement. At that meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there would be no rate hike this month (the second such “pause” in 2023). This was a well choreographed moved and as a result, it was not a surprise […]

A sure sign of the passing of time these days is the release of monthly inflation reports. August 2023’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were released this week and the results were..well, mixed. Let’s look at CPI first. Month over month, headline CPI rose 0.6%. The core metric (excluding volatile food […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. His comments were widely anticipated and eagerly watched by market participants. His comments struck a balance between optimism and caution. On the optimistic side, he acknowledged that progress has certainly been made on inflation fight. However, he was quick to ensure […]

Have you ever been to Jackson Hole, Wyoming? It’s a truly beautiful part of the country. The mountain air, the vast landscape, the stunning view of the Grand Tetons – a perfect place for a late summer vacation. Countless central bank officials and top academic leaders will make their way to Jackson Hole this week […]