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Welcome to the WINDERMERE blog

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Here we are again – another month, another set of inflation readings. April’s reports were both very encouraging. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April was released this week, and it showed clear progress in the ongoing battle against inflation. CPI rose 0.4% in April and 4.9% year over year – both 0.1% lower […]

Apparent Progress

May 11, 2023

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Here we go again. Earlier this week, as expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.0-5.25%. This is the tenth increase in this rate cycle (that started just over a year ago) and brings rates (from zero) to levels last seen before […]

10 is Enough?

May 4, 2023

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The Federal Reserve found itself facing a considerable dilemma this week at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that took place Wednesday March 22, 2023. How would they balance the tension between their ongoing battle against inflation and the threats posed by the recent instability in the banking system? Up until a few weeks ago, […]

Splitting the Difference

March 23, 2023

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It’s been about ten months since I started writing these weekly letters to all of you. During most of that time, we have talked at length about the “after shocks” of COVID and the related government stimulus, focusing largely on inflation and the resulting rapid rise in interest rates to offset it. We have talked […]

Recent Banking Events & What I Know For Sure

March 16, 2023

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It was not all that long ago that Federal Reserve meetings would barely be covered by the media. Now they are truly the monthly headline event and Wednesday’s announcement was no exception (February 1, 2023 meeting) US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell took the stage and announced a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate increase, […]

February’s Main Event – Fed Decision Day

February 2, 2023

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As we turned the calendar to November this week, there were a lot of things to look forward to – final two months of 2022, Thanksgiving around the corner, the few remaining nice days of fall weather (at least for us Midwesterners), and of course – the second to last meeting of 2022 for the […]

Churchill and the Federal Reserve

November 3, 2022

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On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve issued yet another increase in the Federal Fund Rate, bringing it to 3-3.25%. (Note: you can read more detail on the meeting and the implied rate path here) I listened to the press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell – and one phrase kept coming into my mind […]

No Pain, No Gain

September 22, 2022

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Five years ago, I was lucky enough to have a wonderful western adventure with a lifelong friend, spending time in Wyoming and Montana. During that trip, we visited Grand Teton National Park which encircles the beautiful town of Jackson, WY. The area is absolutely beautiful and if you haven’t been, maybe this will nudge you […]

Westward we go

September 1, 2022

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A client asked for a debrief on the Federal Reserve’s actions. Here we go! What happened at the meeting? On July 27, 2022, the US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) once again raised the Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points. The Federal Funds Rate now ranges from 2.25-2.5%, up from near zero in March. This […]

Client Question: Wait, another rate hike?

July 29, 2022

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It’s not every day that a meeting of the US Federal Reserve Bank becomes a spectator sport. However, today (June 15, 2022), there was considerable buzz around this event. There was a countdown clock, endless commentary/predictions, and a televised press conference. Jay Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) is now a well known celebrity (for […]

Fed Funds Rate – Explained

June 16, 2022

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